US military deployment raises tensions in Gulf


Gulf Cooperation Council states 'sandwiched' between Iran, US as prospects for war increase.


By Ali Khalil - DUBAI

US deployment of anti-missile defences off Iran's coast and in a number of its Gulf Arab neighbours is certain to fuel tensions in a strategic region that supplies a third of the world's oil, analysts say.

"This will make Iran more nervous," said Mustafa Alani, head of security research at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre.

To counter a perceived threat from a controversial Iranian nuclear programme and Tehran's advancing missile capabilities, Washington has said it is deploying anti-missile weapons systems in the region.

The move is unlikely to please Iran, which has already warned its Gulf Arab neighbours not to take part in US moves against the Islamic republic.

But Tehran is likely to take comfort from the announcement in Washington that a US military failed on Sunday to shoot down a ballistic missile in a test resembling an Iranian or North Korean strike.

The US administration is reportedly placing specialised ships with missile-targeting capabilities off Iran's coast, and anti-missile systems in at least four Gulf states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia has long had the Patriot missile defence system, while the UAE placed an order in 2008. Bahrain is also home to the US Navy Fifth fleet, Qatar hosts the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Kuwait has a large US military base.

"Iranians will interpret this as an opening shot in the intensification of US military agenda," said Professor Anoush Ehteshami, Iran and Gulf expert at Durham University in Britain.

"Tehran will see this as America putting indirect pressure on Iran by extending the security umbrella over Iran's neighbours," he said. Iran "will not see this in a positive light."

The US administration has not publicly spoken about the reasons for the deployment.

But the New York Times quoted a senior administration official as saying that the moves were meant to deter Iran, and to reassure Israel, which is Tehran's regional arch-foe.

"Our first goal is to deter the Iranians," the unidentified official told the newspaper on Saturday.

"A second is to reassure the Arab states, so they don't feel they have to go nuclear themselves. But there is certainly an element of calming the Israelis as well," he was quoted as saying.

Speaking in Kuwait last week, Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani warned Arab states of the Gulf against permitting US military operations against Tehran from their territories.

He assured them that Tehran "does not want to inflict any harm on the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states."

The US moves follow the failure of UN-led nuclear talks in Vienna between Iran and six major powers. Last month at the talks, Iran refused to forego its uranium enrichment, leaving itself open to international sanctions.

Tehran insists that its nuclear programme is peaceful, but there are suspicions in the West that it may also be working on a covert nuclear bomb.

"The GCC is sandwiched between Iran and the Americans," Alani complained.

Riad Kahwaji, the head of the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, agreed that the move escalates regional tensions. "It reminds everyone that the option of war continues to stand," he said.

On Sunday, a radar malfunction was blamed for the failure of a US military test to intercept a ballistic missile resembling an Iranian or North Korean strike.

Washington is seeking to win over its allies to slap a fourth set of UN sanctions on Iran that would target Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, which it believes controls the military aspect of Tehran's nuclear programme.

Alani said Washington is aiming to contain Iran's threat, if it were to act militarily, by limiting its missile capabilities.

"The only strategic asset for Iran is the Shahab (ballistic) missile system. The Americans have decided now to take this advantage out, through paralysing it with an anti-missile system in the region," he said.

General David Petraeus, head of CENTCOM which oversees US military operations stretching from the Gulf to Central Asia, said the accelerated deployment of missile systems included eight Patriot missile batteries, "two in each of four countries."

The United States was also keeping Aegis guided missile cruisers, equipped with advanced radar and anti-missile systems that can intercept medium-range missiles, on patrol in the Gulf at all times, according to Petraeus.


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